In October 1990, the US National Intelligence Estimate 'Yugoslavia Transformed' (NIE 15-90) forecast that Yugoslavia would cease to function as a federal state within one year and would probably dissolve within two.
Sources
- CIA Support to Policymakers: Unheeded Warning of War - CSI (cia.gov)
- https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/breakup-yugoslavia (history.state.gov)
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2016.1259814 (tandfonline.com)
- https://balkaninsight.com/2023/05/03/declassified-how-us-intelligence-predicted-yugoslavias-bloody-demise/ (balkaninsight.com)
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/the-big-story/bosnias-forgotten-war-is-still-with-us/ (atlanticcouncil.org)
More in History
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