The October 1990 NIE 15-90 judged that Yugoslavia's breakup would be violent and that the conflict might spill over into adjacent regions.
Sources
- CIA Support to Policymakers: Unheeded Warning of War - CSI (cia.gov)
- https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/breakup-yugoslavia (history.state.gov)
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2016.1259814 (tandfonline.com)
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